If you’re one of the 2.95 million Australians who have already voted* (so roughly 16% of a total of 18 million voters) then you’ve clearly made up your mind. But what about those who haven’t yet made up their mind?
This isn’t of course the full remaining 84% – many may have already made up their mind but are just waiting for the right time to cast their vote.
One of the benefits of early voting used to be no queues, no waiting. But now that it’s so popular you might be better off turning up on Election Day to vote!
Bonner is a relatively safe LNP seat, however at the last election both major parties lost support (LNP -4.7%, ALP -1.5%%) and other parties gained support (Greens +5.1%, One Nation +1.6%), as was the case nationally.
Demographics
Demographics in the Bonner electorate will play a role in this election, but not as much as you might think. First time voters make up around 3.5% of all voters** here, but the biggest cohort of voters by age is the 70+ group at around 17% of all voters, and voters over 50 make up 47% of all voters as against 53% under 50.
Voting intent of course is not directly correlated to age, but there’s certainly a connection as highlighted in this recent article (‘I looked at 35 years of data to see how Australians vote. Here’s what it tells us about the next election’), which points out that “…the 2025 federal election will be the first in which Millennials and Gen Z together will outnumber Baby Boomers as the dominant voting bloc in Australia”.
So – who knows?
As we have done in previous elections we are conducting a short (anonymous) survey on this election and will publish the findings shortly before Election Day. Although these surveys are generally not sufficiently large to be ‘statistically significant’ they are nonetheless interesting and often fairly accurate!
If you’d like to participate, hit the button below – it shouldn’t take more than a few minutes to complete…
Should we hold a Member the Candidates Forum? Or maybe an online equivalent?
Also in the survey we ask you whether it would be helpful for us to organise a ‘Meet the Candidates’, either online or offline between now and the election or whether just posing a few of your questions to all candidates and publishing the answers here would be of interest.
Please let us know either in the survey above or in the comments below.
*https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/29/long-drives-chaotic-queues-why-millions-of-australians-are-casting-their-votes-early
**our estimate based on AEC data here – https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/elector_count/2025/elector-count-fe-2025.pdf
Main Image: Phil Hearing on Unsplash
Demographics Image: Brooke Cagle on Unsplash
